Who will be nominated as the next U.S. Defense Secretary to follow Jim Mattis?
Started
Dec 21, 2018 04:02PM UTC
Closed Jan 31, 2019 04:02PM UTC
Closed Jan 31, 2019 04:02PM UTC
Challenges
This question will be judged when the President announces their next candidate for Secretary of Defense in a public forum. They do not need to be confirmed by the Senate to have this question resolve.
Resolution Notes
https://twitter.com/PressSec/status/1126577252135776256
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Jack Keane | 38% | |
| Tom Cotton | 16% | |
| Lindsey Graham | 3% | |
| David Petraeus | 4% | |
| Patrick Shanahan | 8% | |
| Jim Talent | 4% | |
| Dan Coates | 8% | |
| David McCormick | 4% | |
| Another person | 15% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 5 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 11 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 14 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 48 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| There are not enough forecasters in this question to generate an accuracy profile. |
