Who will be the next Chicago Mayor to succeed Rahm Emanuel? (Election is February 26, 2019)

Started Dec 03, 2018 07:02PM UTC
Closed Feb 26, 2019 11:00PM UTC
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Some notes about how we'll judge this question: - If a candidate drops out, they'll be resolved as 0 - We will judge this question on the date and time the election is certified. If something happens to the Mayor-elect and they are not able to assume their duties, we will subsequently refund/void the question since we specifically ask "Who will be Mayor after Rahm Emanuel?"
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Toni Preckwinkle 19%
Garry McCarthy 21%
William M. Daley 25%
Gery Chico 7%
Paul Vallas 6%
Write-in candidate 1%
Other not listed 21%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 12
Average for questions older than 6 months: 11
Number of Forecasts 25
Average for questions older than 6 months: 48
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.154
2.
-0.137
3.
-0.01
4.
-0.009
5.
-0.004

Consensus Trend

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