Will a U.S. Embassy in the Middle East be attacked* by December 31, 2017?

Started Dec 06, 2017 03:45AM UTC
Closed Dec 31, 2017 04:00PM UTC

In lieu of the Trump Administration's possible decision to announce the United States' recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, will resulting protests include an outright attack on a U.S. Embassy in a Middle Eastern country? An "attack" is defined as a penetration of exterior fencing or embassy walls by a weapon (bomb, bullet, etc.), vehicle (car, plane, etc.), or person with a weapon infiltrating the facility.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 20%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 13
Average for questions older than 6 months: 11
Number of Forecasts 22
Average for questions older than 6 months: 48
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.284
2.
-0.188
4.
-0.055
5.
-0.052

Consensus Trend

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