Who will win the 2017 French presidential election?

Started Feb 07, 2017 03:27PM UTC
Closed May 07, 2017 10:00AM UTC

The first round of the 2017 French presidential election will be held on 23 April 2017. Should no candidate win a majority, a run-off election between the top two candidates will be held on 7 May 2017. This question will close for predictions on the morning of the 23rd of April. If there is a run-off, I will resolve all the losing candidates and re-open the question with the run-off candidates until 7 May.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Benoît Hamon - Socialist Party 0%
François Fillon - The Republicans 5%
Marine Le Pen - The National Front 27%
Emmanuel Macron - En Marche! 73%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon - Unsubmissive France 5%
Yannick Jadot - Europe Ecology - The Greens 0%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan - France Arise 3%
Philippe Poutou - New Anticapitalist Party 0%
Nathalie Arthaud - Workers' Struggle 0%
Jacques Cheminade - Solidarity and Progress 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 332
Average for questions older than 6 months: 11
Number of Forecasts 7269
Average for questions older than 6 months: 48
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.24
2.
-0.209
3.
-0.175
4.
-0.167
5.
-0.109

Consensus Trend

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