Who will President Trump first nominate as the next U.S. Supreme Court Justice?

Started Jan 30, 2017 03:23AM UTC
Closed Feb 01, 2017 01:00AM UTC
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Joan Larsen 5%
Charles Canady 2%
Margaret Ryan 0%
Neil Gorsuch 26%
Keith Blackwell 2%
Edward Mansfield 2%
William Pryor Jr. 2%
Mike Lee 1%
Diane Sykes 0%
Raymond Kethledge 2%
Thomas Hardiman 21%
Steven Colloton 2%
Federico Moreno 2%
Ted Cruz 1%
Amul Thapar 2%
David Strauss 2%
Allison Eid 2%
Timothy Tymkovich 2%
Robert Young 2%
Raymond Gruender 2%
Don Willett 2%
Thomas Lee 8%
Other not listed 5%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 7
Average for questions older than 6 months: 11
Number of Forecasts 29
Average for questions older than 6 months: 48
Accuracy
There are not enough forecasters in this question to generate an accuracy profile.

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.246
2.
-0.235
3.
-0.228
4.
0.0

Consensus Trend

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