Will the GOP have a brokered convention?

Started Dec 11, 2015 04:54PM UTC
Closed Jul 18, 2016 05:00AM UTC

This will resolve as true if the first ballot does not result in a majority for any candidate. See relevant context here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/gop-preparing-for-contested-convention/2015/12/10/d72574bc-9f73-11e5-8728-1af6af208198_story.html?postshare=7511449851046020&tid=ss_tw-bottom
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 20%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 26
Average for questions older than 6 months: 11
Number of Forecasts 103
Average for questions older than 6 months: 48
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.148
2.
-0.1
3.
-0.088
4.
-0.075
5.
-0.066

Consensus Trend

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